Friday, 2 December 2011

Put Your Money Where The Points Are

As I was reading some of the comments on a few posts I put up on NMA, I came across "billthegrunt's" startling discovery that the midfielders are not proving to be very fruitful in this seasons game. So I thought it would be best to delve a bit deeper and see why and how to use this information to our advantage.

Well, firstly he's absolutely correct and to so much extent that people really need to take notice and apply this fact to their teams. By large in the yahoo game we all prefer to go with the 3-4-3 formation cause one thing is definite defenders are not going to get u that far. With One third of the season gone the top 10 players are as follows (before game week 14):

1Robin van PersieArsenalF30.44236.50
2Wayne RooneyMan UtdF18.91166.00
3Sergio AgüeroMan CityF12.57155.00
4Edin DzekoMan CityF13.50154.50
5Emmanuel AdebayorTottenhamF20.71147.50
6Demba BaNewcastleF18.83142.00
7Luis SuárezLiverpoolF16.98138.00
8Clint DempseyFulhamM16.10136.00
9Frank LampardChelseaM18.63134.50
10Rafael van der VaartTottenhamM19.31132.50

With Rooney, Aguero and Dzeko at no. 2, 3 and 4 because of their great starts to the season dont give a real picture of the Top 10. But none the less it does tell you one thing that the front three is where the major production lies and with that the most probability of a high score.

Lets see if we can back that theory up......
As the season is 13 games in we can safely say this information does have a solid base of outcomes, thats  a 3rd of the whole season. To give a fairer idea of the Top 10 in the last say 6 games, let me put forth another table I created for the same players. I'm just going to change the rank and overall points output and keep everything the same.

1Robin van PersieArsenalF30.44151.00
10Wayne RooneyMan UtdF18.9131.00
9Sergio AgüeroMan CityF12.5743.00
8Edin DzekoMan CityF13.5059.00
2Emmanuel AdebayorTottenhamF20.7192.00
3Demba BaNewcastleF18.8382.00
4Luis SuárezLiverpoolF16.9870.00
6Clint DempseyFulhamM16.1063.50
7Frank LampardChelseaM18.6363.00
5Rafael van der VaartTottenhamM19.3169.50

So as you can see, the top 4 are still all forwards in the current top 10.

1. RVP
2. Adebayor
3. Ba
4. Suarez

followed by the 3 midfielders and finally the 3 early pace setters right at the back.

Well, all that I'm writing is for finding an answer to few simple inter-twined questions that we ask ourselves each week which are....

Where to put the money?....should i spread it ?....should i bank on the midfielders....should I go all in with great forwards.??...well "statistically" speaking I think the answer is very simple. ...GO ALL in with the forwards.
That doesn't mean u pick a 30.44 points RVP, but if u have to choose between adebayor and vdv...go for or dempsey/lamps...go for ba...
There are other factors to consider when choosing players like match-up, home or away which should be considered. but when those factors are even then choose the forward over the midfielder.

For eg. my own team
I had to choose between VDV/Bale and Rochina or Adebayor and Ben Arfa. This finding gives new confidence in making that decision. And you can see what I'm thinking of going with.

There is still one table I'd like to do and I will, just to make sure I'm not leading everyone to wrong conclusions which is An actual Top 10 performers from last 6 matchdays. Of what I can see Bale, Eagles and Hernandez do break into the top 10 for last 6 Mds' with 81.5, 81 and 72 points to Rank 4, 5 and 6 respec. knocking Dzeko, Aguero and Rooney out. Even in that situation the top 3 are still Forwards. I'll try and have it up before matchweek 14 gets off.... hopefully.

Hope you guys have a good read.
Good Luck!

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