Thursday, 8 December 2011

The Matchday Insight : Week 15



It's been quite an eventful midweek for English clubs with the group stage of champions league coming to close and the fate of the four being decided. The result has to be surprising as no one would have bet that the London clubs would out do the more superior and talented Manchester clubs. With both City and United being pushed into Europa league priorities are sure to change but until next year feb this should not concern us.


Coming to this weeks preview we have a good mix of games ahead of us and choice is plentiful, so it could be a week when we see alot of variations in player picks. Clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are fore runner of the easy match ups so let's get into the details of what players to opt for this week.




Arsenal seem to have all in control with them resting most of their first team players and making it easy for us fantasy managers to know what to expect, which is infect, more of the same offensive football.


Forwards: RVP(At 20.47 is not even a point of discussion, at 27+ still worth ur money, at 31+ is trying to dominate ur team and decision making so steer clear), Gervinho(a good option as he is locked for an exciting performance an can produce a goal and couple of shots)


Midfielders: Arteta and Walcott both are a bit overpriced and depend on a goalscoring performance for a decent points output, Ramsey on the other had is a good pick for his moneys worth, a good filler for teams and always seems one step away from a good score.


Defenders: Verminator(An essential addition to all fantasy teams, he's the only defender worthy of his high price and is not even a question when it comes to teams holding him on a discount).


Keeper: If you barndoored him at below 7 he's worth a spot in ur team, otherwise I feel you could spend that money elsewhere for better productivity.


Now to United and Liverpool who I feel are in the same boat with great match-ups but coming of bad performances:


Forwards: Rooney, Suarez


Midfielders: Nani, Young, Adam


Defenders: Too high priced.


Keepers: only DDG(This could be the last time he's rested for a weekend as the league is now the priority for united and if your holding him at 5.5, just take the chance of him not playing.


The Rest Of The Lot:


Forwards:


Ba: He has the best run of matches coming with away to Norwich followed by Swansea and WBA at home. Can breakout one of his 30 point matches any time.
Adebayor: Bandwagon is going strong and if you joined in at 9+ the no reason getting off this week.
Klasnic: He has an for the goal and the the chances of him getting on the scoresheet against Villa at hom are pretty good
Long: He's worthy of a shout with a decent score of 10.5 from last week and a good matchup against Wigan.
Yakubu: The one that was barndoored. Could he produce another performance for Blackburn? Sunderlands not the most strong defensive outfit there but with a new manager can be inspirational so I would not bet on the yak. Given the good run of games, yes, but then stick with him for next three.


Midfielders:


Bale/vdv: Argueably the two best bankable middy's out there (yes even VDV when fit). There is some sort of satisfaction when you see one of those names on your team sheet. *Edit* Bale facing a late fitness test making VDV's starting credentials much stronger.
Larsson/sessegnon: Larsson is on a good role and could have put a big score if not for the penalty miss. Sess is a cheap alternative to a "vs Blackburn at home mid".
Eagles: flying under the radar since a couple of weeks, seems to me a big performance is around the corner.
Cabaye/Ramsey: Good fillers playing ok opposition.
Ramires: He's now officially a cut above the good fillers as he tends to give more than u wish he'd give. At the discount stick to him. At full price, wait a week.
Obertan/Ben arfa: Great enablers if u want to squeeze in that one extra expensive player. With guthrie's injury I feel Ben Arfa would be a confirmed starter. Obertan is already in Pardews good books having 3rd highest minutes played behind Gutierrez and Cabaye. Teams having RVP at 26+ need one of these.


Defenders:


Brown: Great match up, great price(3.82,5+), no questions. Keep him
Boyata/Perch: good enblers at defensive spots and can return money's worth
Romeu: Midfielder listed as defender and the reason Chelsea's been able to keep a couple of clean sheets. Not the best matchup but if barndoored at 6.29 will not harm sticking to.
Smalling: Weak opposition as long as he plays.


Keepers:


Westwood: Weak opposition, good price
Vorm: Good price, great talent and good home form.




Well now that we've seen the potential picks of the week we can go a step further and see how we can put together a team using our theory of safe and risky players for this week so that we can end the weekend with an improvement in our ranks.


Firstly, the safe picks of the week are


Silva
Aguero
DDG
Suarez
Adebayor
Brown
Vermaelen




The ownership percentage of these players range from 60% to 20% making them essential picks to negate any major drop in rank for ur team.


Players like Cabaye, Ramires, Ramsey, Rooney, RVP are owned by 11% to 18% teams giving them marginal risk but still solid picks.


Lastly players like Bale/VDV, Nani, Ba, Larrson, Eagles are all below 10% ownership making them risky picks but with potential match-ups and form are key to having an advantage to boost up the rank.


Hope you all have a great weekend and looking forward to know how your team is shaping up.


You can follow us on twitter @iFantasyEPL

66 comments:

  1. Great job! Very useful as ever...

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  2. Thanks Tayo, hope your team is shaping up well.Good luck

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  3. My team as of now is :

    DDG

    Vermaelen , Brown , Boyota

    Silva , vdv , Nani , Ramsey

    Aguero , Adebayor , Yakubu

    Have an eye on Suarez , Rooney or Ba instead of Yakubu.

    all have good match ups now and in the coming 3 weeks.

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  4. I'm going with

    Westwood

    Vermaelen, Brown, Romeu

    Silva, ramires, Cabaye, obertan

    Aguero, RVP, Ba

    Still got a whole friday to go. So dont know where I'll end up. Dont want to take too much risk. Even though I upped my rank from 29000 to 22000 after scoring a 128.5. Holding RVP at 26.87.

    RV.

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  5. i've got
    ddg
    verm, brown, boyata
    silva, vdv, brunt, bannan
    aguero, gervinho, ba

    or

    ddg
    verm brown boyata
    silva vdv bale/nani spearing
    aguero gervinho long

    leaning towards the first.

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  6. First is better although I feel ur taking a lot of risk. Bannan cmng of a 10 point week is good pick. Riskier compared to ramsey as ownership is around 1% only. Brunt too is very risky pick with only .44% ownership. VDV is just below 8% in ownership. Ba and Gervinho's ownerships lie at around 2% and 10%. I feel with so much risk involved its better if u try and take suarez who I mentioned is a safe pick this week just to balance out the amount of risk ur taking with ur team. Although if everyone does great in ur team u'd shoot up in ranking, even if a few of those picks dont click u could be falling real short. Silva and aguero don't have a favourable match so banking on them is not a good idea for points. Keep them because everyone has them. Spearing got a red so is suspended for 2nd option but I assume ur taking him for his price at 1. I'd be willing to help if u could tell me the exact prices at which u have the players.
    Try and see how Suarez , Ramires and Cabaye can come in instead of ba,brunt, and bannan.

    Do u support WBA ?

    RV.

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  7. Suarez > Ade > Rooney > RVP > VDV > Bale > Nani > Ba

    ">" means safer than.

    High risk = high rise in rank(high risk picks do well) or high drop in rank(If high risk picks don't score well)
    Low risk = low rise in rank(low risk picks do well) or low drop in rank(if low risk picks don't score well)

    I'm not considering form. Just ownership percentage and match up.
    These ownership % ages are of week 14 so u have to predict where they'll end up in week 15. It's a possibility that if enough teams drop Ade for Rooney on basis of matchup, Rooney would become safer to pick than Ade.

    RV.

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  8. Why have u called yourselfs AM? Are u the same AM who used to write AM YFF Blog?

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  9. No, this isn't AM from assistant manager. This blog is run by me RV and my friend AM united. RV are my initials and AM are his names initials. I also use my Id of rohit0110 on nma. We are totally separate from Nik, the actual AM. Now that you brought it up I see how this could be misinterpret. Anyway. Hope the write ups are useful.

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  10. When it comes to choosing between Nani, VDV and Bale the ownership percentages differ only marginally making the matchup far more important. The match up also might cause the ownership to tilt in Nani's favour. So he could potentially be the safest option of all 3 mids with the best matchup.

    RV.

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  11. I've got everyone at market price except for my defensive line(Verm - 8.57, Brown - 3.86, Boyata - 3.14) , Silva - 8.82, Aguero - 6.52 and Gervinho 10.88. No i'm not a WBA supporter, but i'm a believer of Wigan = easy points for opposition. I was thinking of Suarez in place of Ba and vdv to nani. But then i'm missing out on tottenham's fixture.. Same guy from above by the way.

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  12. oh and ddg at 5.65

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  13. i like the 1st option better as well though prefer Suarez this week to Ba just for the fact that Liverpool play at home to QPR.

    You could also look at Long or Welbeck as they play weak opposition.

    Also, Spearing was sent off against Fulham last week with a straight Red card so will not be available this week.

    Good discounts there in your team and im sure ull be having enough funds for the remaining 4 spots.

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  14. My team as of right now:

    DDG
    Brown Verm Perch
    Silva HBA Ramsey Nani
    Ade RVP Suarez

    Feel pretty good about it but also still confused about Nani-Suarez or Adam-Rooney. Or is it better to spread the money so I can upgrade HBA?

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  15. Man Utd and Liverpool have the easiest matchups this week and i would expect goals in these 2 matches.

    I would prefer Nani ( only inform united player at the moment ) and Suarez ( is due to score plenty after some quiet weeks)

    Rooney is really out of form and i wouldnt put my money on him.

    News from Newcastle is that Guthrie is injured and will be out for atleast 6 weeks, so it makes Obertan and hopefuly hba starters.

    Your team looks good with Rvp,Ade,Suarez and Nani

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  16. Recently started following your blog - arriving here from SBNation. Great stuff, dude!

    My team at the moment:

    DDG (5.5)

    Brown (3.8)
    Verm (6.3)
    Boyata

    Ramires (6.3)
    Silva (8.8)
    Bale (19.4)
    Pilkington

    Adebayor (9.2)
    Agüero (11)
    Suarez

    My biggest issue is if I am going to support Bale or go for Nani. I am also thinking about ditching Pilkington...but for whom?

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  17. Hi Nickemon , Welcome to our blog. Its a result of the passion we have for fantasy and EPL.Hope to see you here often.

    Its interesting to know that Bale averages 19.1 in the last 5 matches.He is a long term pick and should give points consistently.

    Nani is def a good pick no doubt and as i mentioned earlier the only inform united player but till i dont see him giving good amount of points i wouldnt exchange him for Bale.

    Pilkington is priced well for the average points he has been giving.Cabaye(7.11)and Gower (8.78) are decent as well.

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  18. Thanks.

    I feel I am leaning towards the good Gareth, but since I already have Adebayor and no United cover I'll probably make a last minute change to Nani. :D

    And Pilkington, Gower, Cabaye could all turn out good...

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  19. Tottenham Team News :

    http://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/articles/team-news-091211.html

    Bale has a had a problem this week due to the knock he took against Bolton - Harry

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  20. Bale and Jermain Defoe are due for a late fitness test before their game against Stoke.

    As there is no mention of any injury to VDV we do expect him to start.

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  21. hmm. Vdv and Brunt or Nani and Lennon

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  22. gonna punt on guzan this weekend. any thoughts on that?

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  23. vdv : Fit and should play along side adebayor
    as Defoe is a doubt.

    Brunt : Home against WIGAN

    Shd be a good combination.

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  24. Brunt or Sess? I hear sess is playing up front again. Home to blackburn too.

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  25. any confirmation on ben arfa?
    also - is there a chance all those investigations on suarez dirty mouth going to lead to any suspensions this weekend?
    thanks.
    ps. 1st time reader - nice blog!

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  26. Guzan is a risky pick as they play Bolton at the Reebok stadium.

    Bolton are unpredictable at home.They have lost 0-2 to sunderland and Everton recently but have gone to win 5-0 against stoke.

    Aston Villa have never won away from home this season.

    You could also look at Westwood(5.05) at home against Blackburn.

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  27. Hi Trini, as Bendtner is a doubt this weekend you could see Sessegnon playing a more attacking role.So he could be a better pick than Brunt.

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  28. Hi fksuduva, Welcome to our blog and hope you enjoy the experience.

    Suarez is available this weekend as the investigations are due for next week. He has till monday to clear his case.

    No confirmations on Ben Arfa as such but as Newcastle have lots of injuries ,could land him a starting birth.Obertan is a sure starter on the right wing.

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  29. Okay thank you!
    Any thoughts on this as a team?
    DDG
    Verm Brown Boyata
    Vdv Pilkington Sess Silva
    Aguero Welbeck Suarez

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  30. yeah Trini- its good! :)
    thanks for reply Amunited - have a gut feeling on guzan- will take my chances:)
    obertan is almost as much worthless in fantasy terms as he is in real terms:) IMO. everytime i saw HBA play i thought he looked excellent in real terms just not fantasy - and that SHOULD adjust itself sooner or later -no?:)

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  31. Your team looks good.

    In recent events , Alex Ferguson has cleared Berbatov fit to face Wolves.I do hope Welbeck starts.

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  32. what's that ? berba facing a weak opposition????? :) i might have to make some changes in my line up after all! had to double check who let in the 5 last season (BLA) .. he is out of match fitness though.. so probably a brace:)

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  33. Berba could face wolves - Alex

    http://www.manutd.com/en/News-And-Features/Football-News/2011/Dec/Dimitar-Berbatov-could-return-v-Wolves.aspx

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  34. hmm. pilkington > bannan/ramsey and welbeck > berbs if he's to start i think

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  35. thats the trick though you wont know for sure between welbeck and berba.

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  36. You could look at Long (9.77)- playing wigan at home

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  37. will Kuyt start against qpr

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  38. Chances United drop Rooney to mid and have berba partner welbeck up top?

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  39. I dont think Rooney will play in midfield in this match as Alex will be wanting things to get back on track after the ugly result in midweek.

    It will be Rooney and Welbeck(or Berba) upfront.

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  40. Kuyt usually starts when Livepool play a 4-5-1 formation.

    With Carroll and Bellamy available for selection it could cost Kuyt or Downing a starting place like what happened in their last game against Fulham.

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  41. Saturday morning team changes :

    Going for Suarez ( over Ba and Rooney ) in place of Yakubu.

    Replacing Bale with Vdv as i cant afford to have a player not playing.( Bale will have a late fitness test before their game against Stoke )

    Rest remaining the same.

    How are you all doing with your teams ?

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  42. hi AMutd,

    My team is :

    DDG

    Verm Brown Richards

    Silva VDV Larsson Brunt

    Aguero Adebayor Rooney

    Hope it works out well..

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  43. hi guys,

    Nani Ade / Rooney VDV?

    Damnit i cant choose between these two. Any idea?

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  44. Nani Ade

    See if you can get in Suarez

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  45. Suarez already in :-)

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  46. 5 mins to go for deadline..

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  47. My Final team :

    Ddg

    Vermaelen,Boyota,Perch

    Silva Nani Vdv Obertan

    Aguero Adebayor Suarez

    Good luck all

    Will post picks here to Barn door

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  48. Week 16 fixtures
    Date Home Away
    Sat, Dec 17 Blackburn v West Brom
    Sat, Dec 17 Everton v Norwich
    Sat, Dec 17 Fulham v Bolton
    Sat, Dec 17 Newcastle v Swansea
    Sat, Dec 17 Wolves v Stoke
    Sat, Dec 17 Wigan v Chelsea
    Sun, Dec 18 Aston Villa v Liverpool
    Sun, Dec 18 QPR v Man Utd
    Sun, Dec 18 Tottenham v Sunderland
    Sun, Dec 18 Man City v Arsenal

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  49. nice team AMU:)
    good luck!

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  50. Thanks...Good luck to you too

    Had to choose between Suarez and Rooney.
    Hope they do well.

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  51. Team news coming up in 15 mins..

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  52. Arsenal
    Szczesny, Djourou, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Song, Arteta, Ramsey, Gervinho, Walcott, Van Persie.

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  53. Man Utd
    De Gea, Smalling, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Jones, Carrick, Nani, Rooney, Welbeck

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  54. Liverpool
    Reina, Johnson, Enrique, Skrtel, Agger, Adam, Henderson, Downing, Maxi, Kuyt, Suarez

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  55. Norwich
    Ruddy, R Martin, Morison, Whitbread, Crofts, Holt (C), Surman, Hoolahan, Fox, Tierney, Naughton.

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  56. QPR
    Cerny, Young, Gabbidon, Ferdinand, Traore, Mackie, Barton, Faurlin, Wright-Phillips, Smith, Bothroyd

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  57. Newcastle
    Krul R Taylor Simpson Perch Santon Obertan Cabaye Gosling Jonas (c) Ba Shola Ameobi

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  58. Follow our Twitter @iFantasyEPL for all information regarding your fantasy weekends.

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  59. damn it - i gambled on AY - no luck so far for me

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  60. Goals for Nani , Suarez
    Rooney back in score sheet
    Ba scores as he has been doing all season.

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  61. Not a good week.. Dropped Ba, Nani, and Valencia for Suarez, Sess and Bannan.

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  62. Newcastle and Man Utd players are good picks for the next 2 fixtures atleast.

    Now that Rooney has hit some form ( a week too late for me as he could have helped united through the CL tie with Basel ) you must get him

    Nani has been our recommendation since last week.

    Ba is an excellent pick for the next 2 weeks.

    Krul , Cabaye , Perch are good picks from Newcastle.

    As Gosling was red carded, Ben Arfa becomes a favourite to start and he is 2.4 worth in case you need a filler.

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  63. Stoke giving Spurs a tough time at home, 2-1 to Stoke after 70 mins.

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  64. I am making a charge in my mini-league, which is nice. I've changed my mindset thanks to your blog and thanks to the NMA blog. I'll keep reading!

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  65. Thanks Nickemon,great going in your mini league.

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