Monday, 5 December 2011

The Percentage Wars - The Real Factor Behind Ranking Up.

Hi all. It looks like we all are in for a good week. Me and AM were discussing how our teams did and he pointed out the fact that the last minute change I made of taking Adebayor instead of Bale had hurt my chances of moving up the ranks quite a bit as the switch was worth 16.5 valuable points. We thought a further dissection of this move and how it actually impacted the team was necessary, and to be honest, something we'd enjoy getting to the bottom of. 

AM was quick to point out that the fact that a whole lot of players picked Adebayor, therefore is the reason most would have taken the hit. So there is something that we could get out of this analogy. It led me to think that in actuality Adebayor is a "safer" pick and Bale was the "riskier" choice. In fact when we see the ownership percentage of week 14 we can see that Adebayor is owned by 24.18% teams as compared to Bale's 6.6%. What does this exactly mean? 

Well, we all play this game to perform our best and the ranking system is the best reflection of our performances. So to put it in those terms, if you had Adebayor in your team and he scored low, then the chances of your rank dropping drastically are lesser as compared to the situation in which you had Bale and he gave a bad performance which would  leave a bigger red number next to your rank. The other side of the coin is that if Ade does well in your team then the chances of your rank increasing by a big number are lesser than with bale doing well in your team which would give a big boost to ur rank.

                                           Week 13                                                           Week 14

 Players        % Picked       Score    Opponent                   % Picked         Score    Opponent          

   Bale                5.45             10.5      @ WBA                             6.6              24.5       Bolton

   Adebayor      21.12             40.5      @ WBA                          24.18               8          Bolton

It was not that Bale was a actually a riskier choice, it was just the fact the he was an unpopular choice with great potential. So at the end of the day its something we need to consider and apply to our team when making player choices. To seek that balance in strategy of Safe + Risk so that we can climb up that ranking table steadily and surely is the key.

Why I was able to still score in triple figures was the other risky pick of the week, RVP. He is relatively a risky pick because firstly, his ownership percentage is around 10%, secondly his price even though price is not as important a criteria as ownership is. So yes, to move up it is important to take some risks and keep a safety net under you just incase Bale or RVP go bust. 

One thing which differentiates players like RVP and Bale from others is form, they both had it and they both showed it. Which is why I will call such players "Safe Risky" picks. Sometimes with players like these its very safe to take the risk.
Players like Aguero, David Silva and DDG are the cream of safe picks(no risk involved) with all ownerships being above 55%. Almost everyone has them. That is why you should have them, and if DDG gives a zero it won't hurt at all. Take it blindly. Below is a table displaying percentages of a few prominent players for last two weekends in descending order : 

                                                 Week 13                                                    Week 14
S.No   Players        % Picked       Score      Opponent           % Picked          Score     Opponent          

  1. David Silva      58.26             10        @Liverpool             60.95             12.5        Norwich
  2. Aguero             54.91             3.5       @Liverpool             57.25             22.5        Norwich
  3. David Gea        50.43             6           Newcastle               49.96                0          @Villa
  4. Brown              32.04            8.5           Wigan                  31.37               16         @Wolves
  5. Adebayor        21.12             40.5       @WBA                  24.18                 8           Bolton
  6. Vermaelen      18.14             16.5        Fulham                 18.98              19.5         Wigan  
  7. Dzeko              17.06               0        @Liverpool             17.36                2          Norwich
  8. Rooney            17.85               2          Newcastle              16.43              -0.5        @Villa
  9. RVP                10.83             17.5        Fulham                 10.83             26.5        @Wigan         
  10. Bale                   5.45             10.5       @WBA                  6.6                24.5         Bolton
  11. Yakubu            0.97              10          @Stoke                  1.9                42.5        Swansea
So how badly did it hurt not to have Yak in ur teams for week 14?....not as badly as you might believe.  Would have been worse if u didn't have Brown or Vermaelen in your teams.

One safe player still left to play is Saurez who is owned by a whopping 28.8% teams. If he does well we all will see a drop in our ranks. Instead if Dempsey does well most of us wont drop rank too much as only a mere 2.56% own him. For the teams who do own Suarez, relax and enjoy the match cause even if he does bad, all 28.8% will do the same and 24.18 of Adebayor have 8 points, so your covered, barring the ones who have both. Thats too safe a strategy cause Suarez didn't have the best matchup. Teams which took risk with RVP, Bale and others along with Adebayor, their risk has already payed off.

Keep in mind we all have already seen the major movements in our ranks already. This actually is a point of consideration to see the advantage or disadvantage of a monday night match player which is a topic for another day.

We will try and preview week 15 using this information and see if the risk + safe formula can help us make a more balanced team.

I honestly feel there is some strength in this conclusion and that it could really benefit us by having this extra bit of information while making our teams. In-fact this is the only way to understand if your team is setup defensively or offensively.

Hope you guys have a great read. 

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