Wednesday, 30 November 2011

The RVP Factor: Discount Strategy Ups All.

Hi everyone, this is RV. I've been off fantasy blogging for a bit and my mate AM has been doing a pretty good job managing the site alone. One thing I learnt being away and not writing was that doing well in fantasy is more to do with the a consistency in player picks than weekly player picks. Let me explain. I have to be honest, this season has been the worst I have performed in the last 9 years and I sit on a rank of 29000 something. My rank was in 700s' last year and was my best performance ever. I have always been in the top 2500 since the past few yrs. This year I kept making a critical error in my strategy ever week. I kept switching my "to bank on player" in and out of my team losing out on some huge points output and some heavy discounts.  More after the bump:

Why I did this was a personal bias that I think i'm finally getting my head around. I had steered away from the formula of consistent performances in doing so. U need to have a very strong mind when you come up against a situation where we need to decide whats best for the team in the long run vs the short run gains. for eg. I have missed out on a discount of 6 points on RVP and lost out on two 30+ performances, also I have Aguero at 8.45 while I should have had him at 6.65 like majority of everyone else.  Discounts should never be underestimated. RVP and Aguero will never lose there ability to score big and its not worth dropping them even if they are injured for a week or two. They will always make up for it. 

Sometimes a fantasy manager(like me) tends to assume that its not the best strategy to move with the crowd and try and make some picks that most will not have and will boost up my rank, to pick that dark horse that would take u shooting up the ladder. Sadly that strategy is hard to be consistent with or you have to be the miracle worker to know those kind of picks each and every week. 
What I then realize is that a player like RVP is not the part of the crowd but a very small fraction of the fantasy teams have, a mere 10.58% for week 13. This was his highest ever. To have a clearer idea of what I'm trying to get at, let me give his stats from week one.

Week     Price             Percentage Picked                  Score
1            22.06                      6.39                                  2                @ NewCastle
2            20.48                      3.88                                 9.5              vs Liverpool
3            20.50                      2.92                                 16               @ Man Utd
4            21.83                      8.83                                  2                vs Swansea
5            20.47                      5.85                                 18               @ Blackburn
6            20.92                      4.87                                34.5             vs Bolton
7            23.82                      4.83                                  4                @ Totenham
8            21.88                      8.01                                 26.5            vs Sunderland
9            25.31                      8.18                                 23.5            @ Stoke
10          27.22                      6.43                                 36.5            @Chelsea
11          28.17                      8.09                                 18               vs Westbrom
12          26.87                      9.2                                   28.5            @ Norwich
13          28.93                    10.58                                 17.5            vs Fulham

There is something we all can learn from this chart. First and foremost - If you do choose to go with RVP then dont have ur decisions depend on opposition majorly. We see that 1/4th of total owners of RVP drop him after his two weekends of 20+ points because he's facing Chelsea away, losing out on a discount of 5+. This logic would have only suited the .10 % manager who barn doored him after sunderland's game. RVP is a weapon for these few owner who need to bank fully on this strategy week in week out, (barring any injuries to him)to really gain advantage of owning RVP. He will have some misses for eg. the 2 points vs Swansea but thats not what this player is about. He needs to be in ur team period, no matter which opposition, home or away.

He has the best avg. with maximum games played meaning. If u spent 20 million on RVP in the beginning of the season, taken only 3 bad weeks of output and forgot about it u couldn't have been in a better position from one single spot in your team.

He defines the term "Season Long"....So go ahead and stick with him even at 26.87. This article is not meant for the ones who have him at 20.47....they know what they are doing.

Good Luck for the weekend.

1 comment:

  1. Firstly , weclome back RV , this site has missed your inputs over the weeks.

    I must tell u all who are reading this article that this is coming from someone who knows the ins and out of fantasy football.

    Coming back to RVP as a season long pick, well i totally agree with it as he has 'single handedly' got the gunners back to the top half of the league and a comfortable qualification to CL. Along the way he has the best avg, points etc etc But i really feel 20-22 is the best price to have got him. I wouldnt spend 26 on him and get 17-20 pts as the players i will get as "fillers" wouldnt give more that 5 pts and therefore taking a hit on my total score.

    Its shocking to see only 8-10% of folks have RVP , i did feel most of them would him esp when there isnt any other forward to splash the money on. Rooney and Suarez are not rewarding enough.

    I suggest you stick with your pick for the last few years and get a decent combination around him. Stay away from your favourite pick "Torres" the reason why you are where you are. Good luck on this week and i liked the team we discussed over lunch today.Cheers !!